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What GDP really tells us

(What is really scary is that the chart above stops in 2005..)

Written by: Joshua Gayman

Gross Domestic Product(GDP) is the sum of all final goods and services produced within a nation’s borders for a given period(year). GDP is made up of only 4 different factors:

1. Personal Consumption Expenditure: The amount spent by individuals on goods and services.

2. Private Investment: Private investing into things such as factories, equipment, and residential/non-residential buildings.

3. Net Trade: The amount the US exports minus the amount it imports.(This is currently a negative number, hence the term: “Trade Deficit.”)

4. Government Spending: Doesn’t matter if it is buying Barbies, war tanks or investing in medical research. It has the same effect on GDP.

In 2011, the United States’ GDP was $15,000 billion.(NOTE: 1,000 Billion = 1 Trillion. This really puts the $16 Trillion national debt into perspective doesn’t it..) Of that $15,000 Billion, Personal Consumption accounted for 71% of GDP. Private Investment accounted for 13% of GDP. Net Exports is a negative number because we import more than we export. You could say it accounted for -4% of GDP. Finally, Government Spending(federal and state levels) accounted for 20% of GDP.

Let’s take a closer look at these four factors of GDP:

1. Personal Consumption: At 71% of GDP, this factor is by far the most important. The amount that individuals spend is determined by two factors: how much money they earn and how much money they can borrow. These two factors are also the most important factors for 2.Private Investment, because business investment and residential construction both are driven by consumer demand, which is driven by the ability for the consumer to take on more debt.

The expansion of debt owed by the individuals in the United States was the strongest factor driving the economy from the early 1990s up until the economic crisis of 2008. In 1993, the total debt of the household sector first topped $4 Trillion. This number peaked near $14 Trillion in the 3rd quarter of 2008. At that point, the donkey collapsed from too much debt on it’s back when individuals could no longer afford the interest payments on their loans and began to default. (From 2002-2007, the household sector increased its borrowing by an average of $1 Trillion per year.) It was all of this debt that funded personal consumption and therefore GDP.

When loans began to default in 2008, the banks refused to lend the household sector any more money. With credit cards and Home Equity Lines of Credit(HELOCS) getting cut, people were forced to spend less money. With personal consumption contracting, private investment began to contract even more. The result of this was a STEEP decline in US GDP in the 4th quarter of 2008. During the same quarter, unemployment shot up to 10%. At this point, the US Government began to spend much, much more. Had it not done so, the economy would have collapsed into a Greater Depression. It’s just math:

Personal Consumption + Private Investment – Net Trade + Government Spending = GDP

3. Net Exports: This number really comes down to the competitiveness of the country’s goods and services in the global economy. Since this number is negative in the US, it is obvious that we consume more than we produce. We offset this number by holding Reserve Currency status and printing money. Luckily for us, the system will collapse when the world no longer buys American debt, therefore the financial system is doing whatever they have to do to keep the dollar alive. This of course is not a good thing if you are a saver.

4. Government Spending: In the United States, government spending is supposed to be determined by elected officials in response to the demands of the voting public, but the voting public is gaining an increased awareness that government spending is actually determined by the demands of corporate donors.

All of these numbers and stats for me to point out one simple thing: Debt is more important to the United States than production. If it weren’t, we would stop taking on debt, stop paying for unfunded liabilities, and start competing to produce and sell in the global economy(export). it is much easier for us to simply take on more debt, as long as the world will buy our bonds and allow us to print dollars.

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Posted by on February 19, 2012 in DEBT, TRUTH

 

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Happiness Creates Success.. In that order!

Written by: Joshua Gayman

90% of our long term happiness is predicted not by the external world that we live in, but by the way our brain processes the world. If we change our formula for happiness and success, what we can do is change the way that we can then effect our reality.

25% of job success is predicted by IQ.

75% of job success is predicted by optimism levels, social support levels, and ability to see stress as a challenge, instead of a threat.

The absence of disease is not health. 

Our society(schools and companies, parenting styles, management styles, motivation styles, news, etc..) operates as tho:

“If I work harder then I will be more successful, and if I am more successful, then I will be happier.”

This is broken and backwards for 2 reasons:

  1. Every time your brain has a success, you just changed the goal post of what success looks like. IE: You got good grades, now you have to get better grades. You got into a good school, now you need to get into a better school. You got a good job, now you got to get a better job. You hit your sales target, we’re going to change your sales target.”*If happiness is on the other side of success, your brain never gets there. We think if we have been successful that we will be happier, but we keep ourselves from ever getting to that state.
  2. Our brain works in the opposite order. If we can raise our level of positivity in the present, then our brain experiences a “happiness advantage.” Which means our brain at positive, performs significantly better than it does at negative, neutral, or stressed. Our intelligence rises, our creativity rises, our energy level rises. In fact, every single business outcome improves. Our brain at positive is 31% more productive than our brain at negative, neutral or stressed. We are 37% better at sales. Doctors are 19% faster, more accurate at coming up with a correct diagnosis when positive versus negative, neutral, or stressed.

***By becoming positive in the present, our brains work even more successfully, because they are able to work harder, faster, and more intelligently. This means we need to reverse the formula if we want to find out what our brains are actually capable of.

Dopamine floods into your system when you are positive. This has 2 functions:

      1. It makes you happier.
      2. It turns on all of the learning centers in your brain, allowing you to adapt to the world in a different way

*You can train your brain to become more positive.

In 2 minutes for 21 days in a row, you can re-wire your brain to work more optimistically and more successfully.

Write down 3 new things that you are grateful for over 21 days. After 21 days, your brain starts to retain a pattern of scanning the world for the positive and not the negative. Journaling about one positive experience that you have had over the past 24 hours allows for your brain to relive it. Excersize teaches your brain that behavior matters. Meditation allows the brain to get over the cultural ADHD that we’ve been creating by trying to do multiple tasks at once, and allows us to focus on the task at hand. Random and conscience acts of kindness praising or thanking someone in their social support network. (1 per day)

By doing these activities, you are training your brain just like we train our bodies, we can reverse the formula for happiness and success.

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*Stats based on study at Harvard University.

 
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Posted by on February 18, 2012 in BUSINESS, ENTREPENEUR, TRUTH

 

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Don’t Drink the Unemployment Kool Aid

No Jobs Just More Student Loans (Debt)

Written by: Joshua Gayman

Yesterday I posted a status on my Facebook fan page stating, “For those between the ages of 18 and 24, the unemployment rate is at a staggering 46 percent according to a recent report by the Pew Center. That equals the highest unemployment rate for this demographic since reporting began in 1948.” A friend commented saying that she feels many people between the ages of 18 and 24 are lazy. Too some extent I can’t help but agree with this young lady(who is an educated young professional and works very hard). However, I have to agknowledge that there always has been, and always will be, lazy people. The difference is that right now there are too many people unemployed in this younger demographic to simply chalk it up to laziness.

The numbers can be deceiving, as the latest unemployment numbers have the rate down to 8.3%(Down from 9% one year ago). But things may not be as good as they seem, especially for those under 30.

If you are to account for people who have given up on looking for a job, unemployment soars from 8% up to 17%!(Source: Boston Globe) This number equals 5.4 Million lost-workers over the past 3 years and a huge loss in productivity for our nation.  Losing this kind of productivity means that we will see a slower recovery, and have fewer people contributing to our nation’s output, less people buying goods and services, and less people paying taxes. These people are then much more likely to become poor, rely on government assistance, and develop mental health issues(too much stress). This means simply that 5 million people are now consuming and not producing, and are more likely to require money from a government that already spends nearly $1 Trillion more than it takes in every year.

For the future generation, unemployment is at an all time high(since they began reporting in 1948).

*Ages 18-24: 46% unemployment rate(source: Pew Center)

*Ages 18-34: more than 33% have gone back to school and taken on more debt because they can’t get a job.

*34% of those between the ages of 25-29 have moved back in with their parents, and almost 25% of those between 18-34 have!

*One in 5 have put off marriage or having kids because they don’t have the money :(

TRANSLATION: Kids are not growing up, not producing, and not ready to take over for their aging parents or care for them when they retire.

Add college loans and entitlement programs like Social Security that transfer wealth from young to old, and you can see why kids are fleeing back to their parents’ houses and their childhood bedrooms.

Robert Kiyosaki(author of Rich Dad Poor Dad), puts it this way: “Rather than preparing the next generation to support our country, we’re taking their wealth, their jobs, and instead still taking care of them.”

2012 is an election year, so you can be sure the media and politicians will be serving the Kool Aid. Don’t drink it! Invest the time into yourself and increase your financial education! Invest to acquire assets that put money in your pocket before you buy liabilities that take money out!

 
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Posted by on February 15, 2012 in RETIREMENT, TRUTH, Uncategorized

 

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No Jobs Just More Student Loans (Debt)

No Jobs Just More Student Loans (Debt)

A college degree does not guarentee a job these days, but in many cases adds a lot of debt!

 
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Posted by on February 15, 2012 in Uncategorized

 

What Drives the Global Economy?

Written By: Joshua Gayman

The Financial Times has been running a series this month entitled Capitalism In Crisis. When reading this story, it is apparent just how far we are from fixing this global economic crisis. As Richard Duncan points out in his latest post titled This is not a Crisis of Capitalism, “(it’s) not because of the insights contained in the articles, but because the entire premise of the series is completely wrong. This is not a crisis of Capitalism.”

Capitalism is an economic and political system in which a country’s trade and industry are controlled by private owners for profit. More specifically, Capitalism is where the private sector drives production by accumulating capital and investing back into the system. With true Capitalism, the government’s role is very small.

The truth is that the United States has not been Capitalistic for decades. Our federal government spends 25% of the money in our economy and the central bank AKA “The Fed” creates the money out of thin air and manipulates it’s value. Thus, our economy is no longer driven by capital accumulation and investment like before. So if it’s not capital accumulation and investment that are driving the economy, what is it you ask? The answer is DEBT.

Credit creation and consumption(using stuff) have now become the dominant forces driving economic growth. Thus, we no longer live in a Capitalistic economy. 

Capitalism was a phenomenon of the 19th century, one that did not survive past the 1st World War. WWI destroyed the standard upon which Capitalism was built. This standard was the gold standard, and once it was gone, central banks and governments gained near-total control over economic production.

The ENORMOUS expansion of government debt that was used to fund WWI created a credit bubble that we know refer to as “the Roaring Twenties.” This bubble of the Roaring Twenties soon popped and became the Great Depression of the 1930s once the debt was too big to repay.

WW2 was no different, with again complete government control over the economy. In the coming decades after, government spending surged on social programs and military expansion. By the 1960s, the government was using Keynesian tools to control monetary policy and the rate of economic growth. In 1971, President Nixon removed the dollar from the gold standard, which meant that dollars were no longer backed by gold. This gave way to a HUGE explosion of a fiat currency supply(money backed by nothing but the faith the people have in their government’s currency). This expansion in the money supply transformed our world and gave way to the biggest economic boom in human history.

In 1964, the total of all credit in the United States hit $1 Trillion. By 2010, the credit supply had expanded 50 times to $50 Trillion(Source: Richard Duncan). This new found money, or credit, created enormous wealth, profits, jobs, and tax revenues, and ultimately brought on a new age of a global economy. As long as credit keeps expanding, prosperity increases. Credit has replaced Capital as the key driver of the economy.

The economic crisis of 2008 had nothing to do with Capitalism. The crisis of 2008 and that we are still facing today stems from issues with credit creation. Because for what caused the biggest boom(or bubble) in human history, is a debt that must be repaid(unlike Capital). The debt that was taken on which drove the expansion of the last 40 years cannot be repaid, hence the crisis. Even more disturbing, is that now a large percentage of the population is now not credit worthy. This makes further credit expansion nearly impossible. And under this credit-ran economy we now live under, when the credit doesn’t expand, the growth slows, until eventually, the music stops altogether.

This 40 year period of credit expansion birthed a new era in the global economy. The United States has been de-industrialized as a result of being able to buy products from low wage countries on credit. As Industry got smaller in the US, the Finance sector became the dominant sector of the US economy. But the music has slowed down dramatically in the Finance sector as well, now that Americans can’t bear any additional debt. Now that we are weak in industry and in way too much debt, it is a growing problem for the United States to be able to act as the driver of the global economy.

But it’s not just the US who’s economy is no longer capable of working successfully. It’s also the economies of all the countries, such as China, that have seen growth as a result of strong manufacturing and export. This is another global imbalance yet to correct.

Truth is, at least to a large extent, the government now manages our nation’s economy. The US’ demand is still the most important factor to economic growth to the global economy. The world NEEDS us to buy their stuff! But without credit, we can’t!

Now, the actions of other governments and government-related institutions(IE: the European Union) must be carefully monitored. Point in case, the news 2 months ago by the European Central Bank(Europe’s Fed) that they would lend Euros($630 billion worth) to European banks for up to 3 years at low interest rates, is the reason that global stock markets have been gaining over the past 6 weeks. The stock market is also at a high since the 2008 crisis, following news from the Federal Reserve that they would keep interest rates at near zero level through 2014.

Global markets have came back sharply not because of the success of the intervention from the Central Banks itself, but because investors are realizing that more government-directed interventions will come when necessary to prevent future crises.

It is flat out sad that the global economy depends on government intervention. This topic leads to a very controversial political subject regarding smaller or bigger government. Once side argues for bigger government to avert the crisis and the other wants small government with less regulation to get us out of the mess. The reality is, unless we can come together to find a true solution to our monetary problem, both sides will get slaughtered as the biggest bubble in human history pops and credit stops, wiping out the America middle class and taking the benefits with it that we have seen as a by-product of our global economic status.

Don’t get me wrong, market forces still have an important impact in the economy. My point is that now, more often than not, it is government or central bank’s action that has so much influence on market forces that it becomes a very grey area as to where the government influence stops and the market influence itself begins. Supply and Demand still play the key role in setting value. It’s just that today, governments have an enormous role in influencing both. It is imperative that we recognize this, and understand that this is not Capitalism. We must no longer worry about fixing the crisis with Capitalism but instead shift our attention to the crisis in the current economic system that exists in this global economy, a system of debt. The only question we should be asking is this, “Do we try to fix the current debt system, or do we need a better system? Do we need to abolish the current system and go back to the former phenomenon that was a true Capitalistic economy?” I woud say this, either way, one must understand what is going on in the global economy if he(or she) wants to join the rich, as opposed to be forced into the poor, as the middle class is wiped out.

 

 
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Posted by on February 9, 2012 in DEBT, DOLLAR, MONEY, TRUTH

 

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Banks Are Walking Away From Houses

A city in the Cleveland, Ohio area has demolished 1,000 livable houses in the last year and plans to tear down another 20,000. Their thought is that with 20% of the homes in the town vacant, they are not making the neighbor’s values worth less, they’re making them worthless! Here’s my take..

 

 
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Posted by on February 3, 2012 in DEBT, REAL ESTATE, TRUTH

 

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Dollar Shun Continues – Gresham’s Law

“When a government(or governments) forcefully over value one money and under value another, the under valued money will disappear, and the over valued money will flood the circulation.” – Gresham’s Law.

 
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Posted by on February 2, 2012 in DEBT, DOLLAR, GOLD AND SILVER, MONEY, TRUTH

 

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State of the Economy: QE3 (Quantitative Easing)

 

 

 

 
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Posted by on February 1, 2012 in MONEY, DEBT, INFLATION, DOLLAR, TRUTH

 

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Why Do Company’s Really Match 401k Contributions?

The average person, if they even have a retirement account, have a 401k which is investing in mutual funds. Don’t be average. Take responsibility and have some control :) – Josh

There’s No Such Thing As Free Money

Posted on: Tuesday, January 31, 2012|Written by: Robert Kiyosaki

Get a Financial Education and Stop Thinking Like an Employee

Years ago I had a conversation with a young man about 401(k)s. “I have a question for you,” he said. “I’ve read that you say 401(k)s are the worst investments, but I don’t understand why you say that.”

“What is it that you don’t understand?” I asked.

“Well,” said the young man. “Most employers match your contribution. For instance, my employer matches up to four percent of my salary. Isn’t that a hundred percent return? Why is that a bad investment?”

“It’s a bad investment,” I said, “because it’s your money to begin with.”

He looked puzzled and perplexed.

“Listen,” I said, “if it weren’t for 401(k)s, your employer would have to pay you that money as part of your salary. As it is, they still pay it, but only if you give up four percent of your existing salary in to a retirement account where you have no control. And if you don’t, well the employer comes out ahead. It’s your money, but they’re in control.”

Thinking like an employee

The young man still didn’t look convinced, but I could tell he was thinking hard about it. The reason this young man and many others don’t understand my reasoning is that they only think like employees. As an employer, I know that if it weren’t for 401(k)s, I’d have to pay that money to employees in their salary in order to be competitive.

For me, as an employer, a 401(k) is an advantage because I don’t have to pay the money unless an employee opts in, and if they leave my company too early, I don’t have to pay because they aren’t vested.

A recent study confirms what I’m saying and should help those of you who still find this logic confusing or not convincing.

A 401(k) steals your money

A recent study confirms what I’m saying and should help those of you who still find this logic confusing or not convincing. According to Steven Gandel, a study issued by the Center for Retirement Research indicates that, “All else being equal…workers at companies that contributed to their employees’ 401(k) accounts tended to have lower salaries than those at companies that gave no retirement contribution…In fact, for many employees, the salary dip was roughly equal to the size of their employer’s potential contribution.”

Translation, companies that don’t offer 401(k)s must pay a higher salary to compete with companies that do. Those company’s employees simply get their money as part of their salary rather than having to match it and save it in a tax-deferred retirement plan where they have no control and have high fees.

No financial intelligence? Stick with the 401(k)

Control is an important aspect of investing. As I mentioned, with a 401(k), you have no control over your investments as you generally invest in funds and indexes controlled by brokers, who are controlled by bankers, who invest in companies that are controlled by boards — all of which you have no control over.

If you want to be rich, you must have a financial education and control over your money and your investments. This is why I like to invest in my own business, purchase real estate and create products. I have a lot of control over those investments. Generally a good matrix is the more control you have, the higher your potential return. The less control you have, the lower your potential return.

Of course, it takes high financial intelligence to invest in things where you have control because you have to make a lot of important decisions. This is why being forced into a 401(k) probably isn’t a bad thing for most people. This is because most people have little-to-no financial education and wouldn’t know what to do with the extra money other than save it or spend it.

But I expect the average Rich Dad reader to be head and shoulders above the average person in terms of financial intelligence. The reality is that if you’re investing in a 401(k), you’re not making a return on your employer’s match. You’re simply getting what is owed you by your employer.

For some, this might be the first time you’ve ever thought of this. For others, I’m probably preaching to the choir.

Some questions for the Rich Dad community

If you’ve avoided the 401(k) trap, what ways are you using that money to build your wealth outside of a 401(k)?

 
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Posted by on January 31, 2012 in INVESTING, MONEY, RETIREMENT, TRUTH

 

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Federal Reserve Says Economy Will Suck Through 2014

Written by: Joshua Gayman

Last week the World seemed to take a break from worrying about Europe and focused their attention back to the United States and the meeting of the Federal Reserve AKA the Fed. The proof? The Euro rised big against the Dollar.

Ironically, the United States’ problems far surpass the debt problems of the European Union. The difference? We have a Central Bank that can print our currency out of nothing!

The Fed introduced an “Inflation Target,” which they set at 2%. This is something that has never been done before! Last year’s inflation numbers were closer to 3.5-4%, but given that the outlook for coming months is to drop significantly, expectations point to a drop under 2%, at which time would be a perfect scenario for the Fed to come out and unveil a 3rd round of quantitative easing AKA QE3.

The Fed also said they will keep short term rates(“over-night rates”) at all time lows through 2014. The Federal Reserve has never stated a policy that would last 3 years! What’s more crazy, is that debt is the only product the Central Bank sells. Can you imagine if a large company came out and said, “We are going to sell our one and only product at all time lows for the next 3 years.”? I am thinking we’d question whether they could survive another 3 years. The same should be true for the Fed, but I doubt it will. People are still so blinded by the illusion that they actually produce something..

The monetary policy by the Fed to keep rates low KILLS savers. This included anyone who has money in checking, savings, any type of deposit account, IRA, 401k, mutual funds, pensions, etc. If you have your money in one of these places, don’t expect a return for…YEARS.

So where do you see the economy going in the next few years? Well, if the statement by the Fed is any indication, I would say a strong recovery is not on the horizon.

I really don’t see these long term low rates benefiting the masses. I do see it benefiting small business owners who rely on short term loans. I also see it benefiting those who have Adjustable Rate Mortgages AKA “ARMS.” And the group I see being benefiting most by this are those savvy entrepreneurs who will use this cheap money to buy cash flow producing assets.

So what’s the bottom line?

The bottom line is that nothing is free. Money is no exception. There is a “cost for capital.” This means that there is a cost for borrowing money. DUH! The problem is that the cost of capital would be much higher if it weren’t for the Federal Reserve who can set the interest rate anywhere they want. By the Fed placing interest rates under the cost for capital, mal investment is brought into our economy by people who are getting loans for things they shouldn’t. It is because of this that I think the Fed needs to back off and let the market find it’s true equilibrium. This would allow for the smart money to come back into the marketplace. The smart money will stand on the sidelines as long as the Fed holds interest rates low. Investors can’t compete with the Fed when the Fed gets it’s capital by printing it out of thin air! Because the Fed simply “prints” their “capital,” they can hold interest rates at all time lows as long as they need to. Of course this is terrible for the economy as it means we are at their mercy.

If stimulating more debt would help us recover, I think it’s safe to say we’d have recovered by now. The reality is that pushing more debt into the system will not make our problems go away. It won’t slow the foreclosures, it won’t add jobs, and it won’t make life cost less money.

Like any private company, the Federal Reserve exists for one main purpose….PROFIT. The Federal Reserve can’t profit if it doesn’t exits. And it wouldn’t exist if people realized they don’t create anything of real value.

An indebted society is not a healthy one. Look at Greece.. If it weren’t for the US being able to print money, we’d be no better off than them.

 

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